Scenarios for oil markets

Recent developments showed that a minor occurrence in Tunis set of a chain-reaction that has resulted in regime switches in Tunisia and Egypt, set off a civil war in Libya and continues to destabilize political situation in various Middle-Eastern countries. The tensions between Israel and Gaza may add yet another dimension to the crisis in the Middle-East.

Oil prices have increased in the last month to new two year highs but the recent drop in prices and high volatility have been caused by hesitant traders that question if high price levels are sustainable. What scenarios are likely going further and how will they influence oil prices? PJK has analysed the current situation and gives its view on matters.

Research notes – scenarios for oil markets