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ARA independent product stocks rise marginally

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 16 februari 2018 13:12:43

London, 1 February (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks held within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub rose marginally during the past week as a sharp decline in fuel oil stocks was offset by an increase in gasoil inventories.

Fuel oil stocks in the ARA region fell by 13.5pc as the VLCC Daniel, booked by Socar in mid-January, loaded fuel oil from Rotterdam and left the Dutch port for Singapore, where it is scheduled to arrive on 16 March.

No new VLCC bookings have surfaced on the route from Rotterdam to Singapore during the past week as the arbitrage remains generally unworkable.

And some fuel oil was exported to west Africa to supply the local bunkering market.

Northwest Europe is well supplied with gasoil, which was reflected in an increase in independent stocks in ARA from the prior week. The region continued to import large quantities of the product from Russia, where inland demand is limited.

Jet fuel supplies are falling in northwest Europe because of a decline in imports from the Mideast Gulf. One tanker, the SKS Dokka, arrived in Rotterdam from the Mideast Gulf on 25 January and offloaded into the Dutch port the next day. The vessel was chartered by Shell.

Output in the Middle East region is impacted by maintenance works at Kuwait’s 440,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery.

Exports of European gasoline to west Africa remained comparatively high during the past week, while transatlantic shipments were at a low level despite firm demand in the US, resulting in a 5pc increase in stocks. Product supplied in the US — a proxy for consumption — topped 9mn b/d during 20-26 January for the first time in five weeks. US gasoline stocks held steady during the week ending on 26 January and closed down 6pc from a year earlier.

And naphtha stocks fell by just over 1pc from the previous week.

Demand for naphtha from European gasoline blenders and the petrochemicals sector has been weak as buyers are waiting for a potential decline in prices.

Asia-Pacific — one of the main export markets for European naphtha — remains well-supplied with rival petrochemical feedstock propane, keeping demand for naphtha low.

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What Drives Tank Storage Demand? Market Structure

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 9 oktober 2017 14:30:02

The market structure stimulates traders to buy now and sell late. In this article we would like to highlight the themes contango and backwardation and what market structure means for tank storage operators.

Introduction contango and backwardation
An oil price for immediate delivery is called spot price or cash price while an oil price for delivery at a specified date in the future is called a forward price. When we plot these various prices and order them from short to long term delivery, a forward curve is created.

When a futures price (second month) is below a futures spot price (first or front month), the market structure is in backwardation. In this case, the forward curve is downward sloping. When the futures spot price is below the futures price, the market structure is known as contango. In this case, the forward curve is upward sloping.

Learn what drives tank storage demand. Join the FREE Webinar: PJK Tank Terminal Commercial Performance Model upcoming October 30th 2017.

A contango usually occurs when supply is higher relative to demand (supply glut) while in a backwardation demand is higher relative to supply (shortage). As time evolves, an oil forward curve can switch from backwardation into contango as in the case of the NYMEX RBOB futures forward curve (see: figure 2). When a cyclical pattern is visible, this is called seasonality. With respect to NYMEX RBOB futures, US gasoline prices tend to rise towards summer driving season during the period June and September. In the period before peak demand, oil traders tend to buy and store products to have product available in times of high consumption.

Learn what drives tank storage demand. Join the FREE Webinar: PJK Tank Terminal Commercial Performance Model upcoming October 30th 2017.

Importance of market structure to tank storage companies
In a period of contango, oil traders are encouraged to buy oil products today and sell in the future when the spread between two months covers storage, shipping and finance costs. When this opportunity presents itself, product is being sold, shipped and stored, resulting in more business for tank storage companies. This play is known as a ‘contango storage play’ but is limited by the maximum tank storage capacity available.

In some rare occasions, when the time spread is large enough even tanker vessels are chartered by trading companies to store oil products. This is known as floating storage. In this rare environment demand for tank storage is high and pushes storage rates for spot availability. Backwardation discourages storing oil products as a trader can sell oil today at a better price than in the future.

Is market structure the only business opportunity indicator for tank storage companies?
There are other indicators that should be taken into account such as price volatility, arbitrage and more. These topics and PJK’s market model will be covered in upcoming weeks.

Learn what drives tank storage demand. Join the FREE Webinar: PJK Tank Terminal Commercial Performance Model upcoming October 30th 2017.

Source: Morgan, D., Oil 101, 2009

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ARA independent product stocks climb

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 29 september 2016 14:09:41

London, 29 September (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub increased substantially during the past week after sliding to the lowest level since May 2015 the week before. Naphtha and fuel oil inventories rose by a combined 298,000t, resulting in a 6.3pc increase in total stock levels.

The European market has been well-supplied with naphtha, while demand in the local market has been soft and the trade route to Asia remained unworkable during the past week. Demand for the product from gasoline blenders was dented by the full restart of the Colonial pipeline last week, which reduced transatlantic flows of gasoline.

A total 703,000t of gasoline was booked in the spot tanker market with transatlantic discharge options for loading during 23-29 September, down from 972,000t in the prior week. And gasoline imports from Russia increased during the week compared with the prior seven-day period. Independent stocks of the product in the ARA region increased by 36,000t as a result.

And fuel oil stocks in the ARA region rose by more than 30pc during the period as no VLCCs loaded fuel oil in Rotterdam. A VLCC is scheduled to begin loading fuel oil in Rotterdam on 3 October. The VLCCs Saiq and Mazyonah were recently booked to load fuel oil from Rotterdam in late September to early October to take it to Asia-Pacific.

Gasoil stocks rose marginally as low water levels on the Rhine reduced inland flows of the product. Low freight rates led to an increase in fuel oil exports from northwest Europe to the Mediterranean region, while imports from the US and the Middle East remained limited.

Jet fuel stocks swam against the tide, falling by 22,000t because of a decline in imports. The ARA region imported jet fuel from the UAE during the period. Last week, the product was imported from South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Buying interest in the European market has been weak following the end of the peak summer demand season.

PJK International is also consulted for (medium and long term) supply and demand forecasting, tradeflow forecasting, oil tanker vessel tracking and its view on price trends on NWE oil markets.

 

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European Gasoline to Ecuador as US Arb Shut

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 13 juli 2016 17:00:06

By Rachel Graham and Laura Blewitt
(Bloomberg) — Noble books Maersk Matsuyama to haul gasoline to Ecuador from NW Europe, fixture data from Galbraith’s show.

* Vessel to load July 13
* Maersk Matsuyama currently located at Rotterdam, tanker tracking data show
* NOTE: Tankers have been diverted from U.S. East Coast in past 2 weeks, while IEA says product is going into floating storage in NY Harbor area
* In addition to North America, most common destinations for European gasoline are Brazil, West Africa and China, according to PJK International which tracks vessels loading in ARA; Ecuador is an unusual destination
* ATLANTIC GASOLINE: Cargo flow from Europe to slump to 4-wk low

PJK International is also consulted for (medium and long term) supply and demand forecasting, tradeflow forecasting, oil tanker vessel tracking and its view on price trends on NWE oil markets.

 

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ARA independent product stocks fall sharply

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 28 april 2016 12:48:53

London, 28 April (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region fell sharply in the past week, dropping to the lowest level since late July 2015 because of substantial drawdowns in fuel oil and gasoline stocks.

Fuel oil inventories in the ARA hub declined by more than 150,000t as two Singapore-bound VLCCs, the Front Hakataand the Nave Quasar, loaded fuel oil from storage tanks in Rotterdam. The economics for shipping fuel oil from northwest Europe to Asia-pacific have been marginal at best and the trade between the two regions depended on companies’ ability to secure freight at low rates.

Koch has chartered the VLCC Nave Neutrino to load fuel oil from Rotterdam to take it to Singapore. The tanker is scheduled to arrive at the port on 5 May. Demand for fuel oil in the local bunkering market in northwest Europe has been soft, while imports from the Baltic have been impacted by refinery maintenance in Russia.

And gasoline stocks also declined substantially because of increased exports to the US, where domestic production dropped. This happened as a result of unplanned shutdowns and malfunctions at several refineries in the US Gulf, including Marathon Petroleum’s 565,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana plant and Chevron’s 330,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi plant.

Total gasoline output in the US fell by 39,000 b/d in the week ending 22 April from the prior week, while imports rose by 14pc to nearly 900,000 b/d, according to the latest EIA data. Total crude oil throughput at US refineries dropped by 1.6pc from the prior week to 15.8mn b/d.

But gasoline inventories in the US climbed by 1.6mn bl to 241.3mn bl during the period, while stocks on the Atlantic coast, which is crucial for the transatlantic trade, increased by 1.3mn bl to 66.4mn bl.


Interested in consumption, production and tradeflow forecasts of the Northwest European liquid bulk cluster? Download the sample report.

Exports to west Africa are set to pick up after declining because of a surplus of cargoes floating offshore Nigeria. Lack of storage capacity and ageing infrastructure limited the amount of product that could be stored onshore. Nigeria’s state-owned NNPC has been buying gasoline to address fuel shortages at the pump. Reformate continues to be exported from Europe to China.

Despite higher gasoline shipments to the US, demand for naphtha from gasoline blenders in Europe remained soft during the week, while the economics for shipping the product to Asia-Pacific stayed weak. Total naphtha exports from Europe to Asia-Pacific set to fall by 300,000t from the previous month to 1.2mn t in May because of maintenance at petrochemicals plants in the region. But demand from the European petchem sector remained firm during the past week and stocks in the ARA hub fell by just over 40,000t.

And demand from gasoline blenders in the US has been strong, drawing product from Europe. At least six cargoes carrying European naphtha have departed for the US in April.

Gasoil stocks in the ARA hub fell marginally from a week earlier as more product was shipped inland because of stronger demand from Germany, while imports from the US and the Middle East remained at a low level. And maintenance on units at Shell’s 420,000 b/d Pernis plant in the Netherlands is set to continue until late May, limiting diesel supplies in Europe.

Jet fuel stocks increased as product was imported from South Korea during the week. Activity in the market has been at a low level, but selling interest could increase because of strikes at six German airports on 27 April and a strike in France today, which have grounded more than 1,000 flights.

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ARA oil product stocks marginally fall

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 21 januari 2016 15:38:40

London, 21 January (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region marginally declined in the past week as a drop in naphtha, gasoline and fuel oil stocks outpaced a build in gasoil and jet fuel stocks.

Fuel oil stocks remain high despite firm export bookings to Asia-Pacific from northwest Europe. Stock levels dipped by 3.9pc from a week earlier. But supplies could become tight as lower flat prices in northwest Europe may start to discourage shipments from Russian Baltic ports.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.6pc despite the closure of the transatlantic arbitrage, as spot bookings increased from northwest Europe to west Africa.

Naphtha stocks dropped by 27.7pc, having risen by 15.8pc the previous week, as demand from gasoline blenders and petrochemical operators in northwest Europe held firm.

The contango in gasoil and jet markets continued to support movement of product into storage. Gasoil stocks rose by 2.3pc while jet fuel stocks rose by 5.3pc from the previous week.

PJK International is also consulted for (medium and long term) supply and demand forecasting, tradeflow forecasting, oil tanker vessel tracking and its view on price trends on NWE oil markets.

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ARA oil product stocks decline

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 23 juli 2015 14:30:02

London, 23 July (Argus) — ARA oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region fell this week after hitting record highs. Total independent product inventories in the region stood at 5.883mn t today, down by 168,000t from 6.051mn t a week earlier, which was an all-time high, data from Dutch consultancy PJK International showed.

The biggest decline was in fuel oil stocks, which fell by 100,000t to 737,000t, slipping below 800,000t for the first time since late April. Arbitrage to Singapore remained closed, but BP was loading a VLCC at Rotterdam, leading to a drawdown in stocks.

Naphtha stocks dropped by 99,000t to 190,000t during the week, hitting the lowest level since April. Demand for open-specification naphtha was higher during the period than in the previous week.

Gasoil stocks fell by 63,000t to 3.182mn t during the period after reaching an all-time high of 3.245mn t in the previous week. Export flows from the Baltic region remained steady and the transatlantic arbitrage was open.

Jet fuel stocks declined by 19,000t to 680,000t during the week. Demand for the product in Europe remained relatively weak, while supplies were stable.

But gasoline stocks climbed by 113,000t to 1.094mn t, which marks the highest level in more than a year. Gasoline exports to the US fell sharply during the week as the US is currently well supplied with the product. But exports to west Africa are rising again after Nigeria issued its third-quarter import quotas.

Argus reporter: Sergei Balashov

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Oil glut spills into diesel, gasoline as storage demand swells

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 12 januari 2015 17:09:38

• ARA product stocks at three-and-a-half year highs • Oil product markets in contango across the board • Graphic of ARA product stocks: http://link.reuters.com/tys73w

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Oil prices were relatively stable last week

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 4 november 2014 13:39:55

Crude – and product prices were relatively stable last week. A ‘bearish’ market outlook from the American investment bank Goldman Sachs early in the week weighed on prices.

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Waterstanden van belang voor toekomstig tarief

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 16 oktober 2014 13:41:46

De vraag op de (Rijn)transportmarkt richting Duitsland, Frankrijk en Zwitserland concentreert zich op belading in de tweede helft van oktober.

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