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Fuel oil build bolsters ARA independent product stocks

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 14 december 2018 14:42:39

London — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub increased by 2.4pc on the week today to 5.03mn t.

Fuel oil inventories increased by 22pc on the week to reach an eight week high (see table). The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Neptun is currently awaiting loading in Rotterdam for east of Suez discharge. Tankers arrived from France, Italy, Russia and the UK. Fuel oil stocks can be subject to greater changes as a result of the use of larger tankers to carry cargoes eastward.

Gasoil stocks declined by 5.1pc to their lowest level since 21 June. Inland buyers took advantage of a recovery in Rhine water levels to replenish stocks of diesel and heating oil. Liquidity in the German 10ppm diesel fob ARA barge market has doubled in the last two weeks. German diesel barges also moved to a premium to their Hamburg-delivered cargo counterparts, likely encouraging the sale of smaller parcels for shipment up the Rhine. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from the Baltic and Mediterranean regions, and departed for the UK and west Africa.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.8pc to a six week low. Cargoes departed for the Mideast Gulf, Canada, the US and west Africa. Transatlantic and west African demand rose on the week, drawing more gasoline out of the area, and flows of gasoline blending components from inland destinations rose to support ARA inventories. Gasoline cargoes arrived from Denmark, Finland, France, the Mediterranean and the UK.

Naphtha inventories rose by 6.3pc as a result of a steady flow of incoming cargoes. Tankers arrived from Algeria, the UK and the US while none departed. Demand from inland petrochemical end-users rose, again supported by the rise in Rhine water levels.

Jet fuel stocks fell by 1.7pc to reach their lowest level since 11 May. A tanker arrived from Finland, likely for use in gasoil blending. A single tanker was recorded leaving for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks at one-year low

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 30 november 2018 16:31:54

London – Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 2.4pc on the week today to 4.83mn t, the lowest recorded since 30 November 2017.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 13pc amid strong demand from east of Suez. The Solomon Sea left Rotterdam on 27 November carrying a 100,000t cargo. Smaller tankers also left the ARA area for the Mideast Gulf and west Africa. Cargoes arrived from France, Russia and the UK.

Gasoil stocks fell by 3pc, the lowest level recorded since June. Low Rhine water levels continued to affect the market, limiting barge flows from the ARA into Germany. Market participants continued to use tankers to load gasoil in the ARA area and transporting it to north German seaports for onward distribution. Demand from inland fell on the week, impacted by higher freight rates. Tankers arrived from Russia and departed for Germany, France, the UK and west Africa.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.1pc. The US Atlantic and Gulf coasts remained well supplied, limiting interest in European gasoline from across the Atlantic. West Africa was the only region to receive gasoline cargoes from the ARA during the week to today. Gasoline flows into Germany were steady but volumes of blending components coming the other way fell on the week because of weakening gasoline refining margins.

Naphtha stocks rose by 28pc. Inventories were supported by the contango structure in the naphtha market, resulting from an ongoing supply overhang. Demand both from gasoline blenders and petrochemical users remained low during the week to today, and barge flows up the river Rhine to inland end-users dwindled. No tankers left the ARA area and tankers arrived from Algeria, Libya, Russia, Sweden and the US.

Jet fuel stocks rose by 1.7pc to a seven-week high of 656,000t. Tankers arrived from the east of Suez into UK ports, easing the regional tightness seen in regional weeks, and demand was lacklustre. The Fos Picasso arrived into Rotterdam on 27 November with 90,000t of jet fuel from the UAE but had not offloaded at time of writing. As with other products, barge flows into Germany were constrained by low water levels.

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ARA independent product stocks reach 11-month low

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 16 november 2018 12:02:45

London, (Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 11pc from a week earlier to 4.88mn t, the lowest level recorded since December 2017.

Gasoil stocks fell by 7pc to 2.2mn t, the lowest level recorded since 5 July amid tight supply in Europe. The Swiss government released more gasoil from its strategic reserves today, in order to alleviate persistent supply disruptions. Barge freight rates from the ARA area to Switzerland have risen to around SFr180/t, up from SFr20/t at the beginning of July. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia and the UK, and none departed.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4pc to 899,000t, the lowest level since 13 September. Several tankers left for Mexico and for Nigeria, and vessels also departed for the US and Mideast Gulf. Tankers arrived in the ARA from France, Russia and the UK. Northwest Europe remained amply supplied and flows into Germany continued to outstrip those coming out, in a reversal of the usual pattern.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 27.4pc to 913,000t. The Frio departed Rotterdam during the reporting period carrying a 130,000t cargo to Singapore, and two other vessels also left the area carrying fuel oil cargoes. Demand from east of Suez remained strong, drawing cargoes into the ARA area for future eastbound loadings. Tankers arrived in the area from Latin America, Russia and Spain during the week to today.

Jet fuel stocks fell by 1.2pc to 636,000t. Inland demand continued to be met largely by pipeline flows and there was an uptick in buying interest for dual purpose kerosine, likely from the UK. Stocks remained low as recent backwardation in Ice gasoil futures made storage economics unviable. In addition, some cargoes originally destined for northwest Europe from the US and east of Suez have been diverted to the Caribbean and Africa, limiting prompt availability.

Naphtha fell by 13.4pc to 226,000t. Outflows to inland end-users remained under downward pressure from problems arising from low Rhine water levels. But demand from gasoline blenders in the ARA area appeared higher, amid increasing gasoline outflows from Europe. A single tankers arrived in the ARA area from the UK, and none left. Eastbound arbitrage economics have become unviable on benchmark paraffinic grades over the last week amid ample supply in Asia-Pacific.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks rise

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 9 november 2018 12:36:10

(Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose by 3.3pc from a week earlier to 5.48mn t, prompted largely by a sharp rise in fuel oil stocks.

Fuel oil stocks rose by 33.3pc to a seven-week high of 1.26mn t. The Eagle San Francisco and the Frio — both Suezmax-sized tankers — are currently in Rotterdam awaiting loading. Firm demand from east of Suez continues to draw smaller cargoes into ARA for loading into larger tankers. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Canada, France, Latvia, Russia, Spain and the UK. A single tanker left the area for west Africa.

Naphtha stocks also rose, increasing by 8.3pc to 261,000t. Outflows to inland end users remained under downward pressure from problems arising from low Rhine water levels. Naphtha demand from gasoline blenders in northwest Europe also remained low. Dwindling demand from end users in Asia-Pacific limited viable outlets for European naphtha, helping to bring outright prices to their lowest since February, at $545.50/t. Vessels arrived from Algeria, Finland, France, Norway and the UK. None left the area.

Jet kerosene stocks rose by 2.9pc to 644,000t. The Pro Triumph arrived into Rotterdam on 4 November carrying an 80,000t jet fuel cargo from India, and a single tanker departed for the UK. Steep backwardation in underlying Ice gasoil futures made the economics of storing jet fuel in tank unattractive, creating an incentive for end users to consume purchased volumes promptly.

Stocks of gasoil fell by 133,000t to 2.38mn t, the lowest level recorded since 19 July, amid tight supply in Europe. Margins for French 10ppm diesel cargoes on a cif Le Havre basis climbed to $23.85/bl against North Sea Dated yesterday, from $20.48/bl a week earlier — to their widest point since November 2012. Margins have averaged some $14.69/bl in the year to date. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia and the US, and departed for the UK, west Africa and Germany. Low Rhine water levels have prompted market participants to transport gasoil to north German ports on tankers, before sending them inland via rail.

Gasoline stocks fell by 42,000t to 943,000t, the lowest level since late 20 September. Remaining supply of summer-grade product helped incentivise bookings to Argentina and Australia. Tankers also left for Latin America, China and west Africa. Tankers arrived from Denmark, France, Italy, Norway and the UK. Northwest Europe remained amply supplied. As with gasoil, gasoline was increasingly being transported into inland Germany by rail in response to low Rhine water levels.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks fall

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 26 oktober 2018 15:25:16

(Argus) Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 7.6pc from a week earlier, prompted by a drop in stocks of all products recorded except gasoline.

Stocks of gasoil fell by 11pc to 2.56mn t hitting their lowest level since early September. A lack of incoming cargoes from the US and the Mideast gulf because of higher demand in other key import regions meant that outflows outstripped incoming volumes. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from France, Spain and the UK and departed for Latin America, South Africa, the US and west Africa. Low water levels on the Rhine impacted gasoil flows into Germany further this week.

Most Rhine gasoil barges stayed north of Koblenz, but some passed the bottleneck at Kaub in response to strong demand from upper Rhine destinations. Margins for French 10ppm diesel cargoes on a cif Le Havre basis climbed to $17.59/bl against North Sea Dated yesterday, the widest since 15 August according to Argus data.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 6.8pc to their lowest level since the first week of April, prompted by firm demand from east of Suez. The fall in inventories was prompted by the loading and departure of at least three cargoes during the week to Thursday. The SCF Ural and Chios departed for Singapore during the reporting period carrying 140,000t cargoes, while the Advantage Spring departed with a 130,000t cargo. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Estonia, the Mediterranean, Russia and the US.

Gasoline stocks were broadly unchanged. Outflows were again supported by exports of summer grade product to destinations in the southern hemisphere. Eurobob oxy gasoline is currently trading at a 43¢/bl discount to North Sea Dated crude for the first time in over seven years, with supply outstripping demand in key export markets. Tankers departed for Latin America, South Africa, the US and west Africa.

No jet fuel cargoes arrived in the ARA area during the week to 25 October, and inventories reached their lowest level since 17 May.

Naphtha stocks fell by 16pc, their lowest level since 6 September. Low Rhine water levels again weighed on demand from inland petrochemical end-users.

Tankers arrived from Finland, France, Norway and Poland. Europe remains under a naphtha supply overhang amid low demand from gasoline blenders and petrochemical end-users, prompting a sharp rise in eastbound bookings.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks fall

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 12 oktober 2018 15:14:01

London, 11 October (Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 2.4pc from a week earlier, largely as a result of a significant drop in fuel oil volumes. Stock levels of other products were broadly stable.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 17.3pc to 1.03mn t, prompted by the loading and departure of several cargoes during the week to today. The Max Jacob, booked by Litasco to ship 130,000t of HSFO to Singapore loaded on 4 October and headed eastbound. The South Sea, booked by P66 to ship 130,000t of cracked fuel oil from Rotterdam to Singapore, likely started loading on 11 October. Tankers also left the ARA area for west Africa and the Mideast Gulf. Arbitrage economics to take high-sulphur material from northwest Europe to Asia Pacific strengthened in the past week. The Singapore second-month 380cst swap premium to HSFO cargo prices in northwest Europe averaged $33/t on 4-10 October, compared with an average spread of $29.70/t during the prior five trading days. A total of 430,000t of fuel oil was booked to Singapore this week.

Gasoline stocks fell by 25,000t to 1.06mn t, with outflows being supported by efforts to sell off stored summer-grade volumes. Cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Finland, Spain and the UK. Tankers left the area for the Mideast Gulf, Brazil, Latin America and the Mediterranean. Naphtha stocks fell by 11,000t to 341,000t, prompted by steady demand from inland petrochemical end-users and low volumes arriving in the area. Tankers arrived from Algeria, France and Portugal, and none were seen departing.

Stocks of gasoil rose by 102,000t to 3.04mn t, the highest level since mid-February 2018. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia and Saudi Arabia, and departed for France, the Mediterranean and the UK. Low water levels on the river Rhine continued to impact barge traffic into Germany and France, bolstering interest in other forms of product transport. Cargo freight rates from the ARA continued to rise as a result, with some operators preferring to move material inland via other coastal outlets.

A single jet kerosene cargo arrived in the ARA area during the week to 11 October and a single tanker left for the UK. Inventories were effectively unchanged on the week at 674,000t. The Raysut partially offloaded in Rotterdam following a partial deposit into Fawley. The vessel had been sitting in the English Channel since 18 June, as the buyer was exercising some of its contract options by waiting to offload. Northwest European jet fuel demand has fallen since last week. Imports from east of Suez have been thin, with most arrivals entering UK and French ports.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks increase

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 28 september 2018 13:56:15

London, 27 September (Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose by 6.3pc from a week earlier because of large gains in fuel oil and gasoline inventories.

Fuel oil stocks rose by a fifth from a week earlier as product was put into storage to be loaded on two Singapore-bound VLCCs. One of these tankers — the Ridgebury Artois — has likely started loading fuel oil and could shortly leave for Singapore. No VLCCs left during the past week, while the Suezmax Sabine departed for Asia-Pacific with 130,000t of fuel oil. Bookings on the route to Singapore have picked up pace this week as export economics improved following a decline in Singapore’s inventories to multi-week lows. The ARA region imported fuel oil from the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and Spain.

Gasoline stocks also rose, climbing by 10pc amid limited export options. US demand for gasoline has been weak since the conclusion of the summer driving season. This was reflected in last week’s increase in stocks, which came despite lower domestic production. During the week to 21 September, implied demand dropped to a 17 week low, and was also down year on year, according to EIA data. Exports to the Middle East are also likely to slow in the coming week as regional refineries come back from unplanned shutdowns. The ARA region exported gasoline to the Mideast Gulf and west Africa during the past week.

Lack of export options and comparatively low demand also led to an increase in naphtha stocks, which climbed 6pc from a week earlier. The European naphtha market is well-supplied, while demand from gasoline blenders is low. And arbitrage economics to Asia-Pacific are unworkable, largely because of ethylene cracker maintenance in that region. No naphtha was exported from the ARA region this week, while product arrived from Algeria, France, Spain and the UK.

And diesel inventories rose by less than 1pc this week. US diesel production also has fallen, which is likely to lead to a decline in exports to Europe in the coming weeks. In Europe, water levels on the Rhine remain low, keeping barge rates high and limiting inland shipments. The economics for importing diesel into Europe remain weak. But this could change if Rhine river water levels rise, allowing German demand to access ARA gasoil stocks, reducing supplies and pushing prices higher.

Jet fuel stocks bucked the trend, dropping by 14,000t, or 2pc because of comparatively high export volumes. The ARA region shipped the product to Denmark and the UK, while importing some jet fuel from the Mediterranean.

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ARA independent fuel oil stocks fall sharply

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 24 september 2018 10:03:25

London, 20 September (Argus) — Oil products stored independently within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub declined by nearly 2pc over the past week because of a large drop in fuel oil inventories.

Fuel oil stocks shed 143,000t — or 11.2pc — during the past week as imports of Russian fuel oil from the Baltic Sea continued to fall. The decline came despite challenging arbitrage economics to Singapore. No vessels bound for Asia-Pacific have loaded fuel oil from Rotterdam during the past week. The VLCC Ridgebury Artois, booked to ship 270,000t of fuel oil to Singapore earlier this month, has arrived in Rotterdam. Some fuel oil was exported to the Mediterranean to supply the local bunkering market and to the Middle East during the past week.

Jet fuel stocks also declined, but were down just 1pc week on week. The European market is generally well supplied, while demand has weakened following the conclusion of the peak summer flying season. But most of the product imported from east of Suez this week was discharged into ports in the UK. One vessel, the Polar Bright, chartered by BP, arrived into Rotterdam on 16 September with 90,000t of jet fuel from Ruwais, but has yet to offload this material.

Gasoil stocks rose by around 1pc during the past week. Inland shipments to the German market, which is affected by supply shortages, remained depressed because of low water levels on the Rhine. Transatlantic shipments of diesel have not fallen as much as expected by market participants in September from the prior month because of high US production and stocks. The Asian diesel market is tight, which is likely to draw diesel from the Mideast Gulf, reducing the amount of material available to be exported to Europe from that region.

Gasoline inventories also rose by around 1pc week on week. US demand for European gasoline has dropped following the conclusion of the summer driving season, but buying interest in west Africa and the Middle East remains firm, largely offsetting the impact of lower transatlantic shipments. The ARA region imported gasoline from Denmark, France, the Mediterranean and the UK in the past week.

Likewise, naphtha stocks rose marginally during the period, adding just 2,000t. Demand from gasoline blenders and the petrochemicals sector has softened during the past two weeks, keeping more product in storage. Some naphtha was shipped to Denmark, likely to use as a feedstock to produce gasoline.

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Insights from our analysts

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 13 september 2018 7:35:47

This weeks insight from Lars van Wageningen, our Operations Manager at PJK International, also quoted by Bill Lehane (Bloomberg) considers the market is getting tight. The inland stockpiles haven’t been replenished over summer because Rhine barges haven’t been able to operate at full capacity. Furthermore even as the water levels start to recover, the Rhine barge rates remain high; also barge traffic has risen on the main river. In addition the Bayernoil Vohburg refinery outage is also adding to tightness, with suppliers in that region looking further north for supply than usual.

 

Lars van Wageningen

lars.van.wageningen@pjk-international.com 

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High gasoline exports trim ARA oil product stocks

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 31 augustus 2018 10:09:28

London, 30 August (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell nearly 5pc this week to 5.15mn t, prompted by stock draws on all major products except jet fuel.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.9pc to 757,000t, the lowest level since November 2016. The European market is preparing to switch to winter-specification gasoline in September, and is shedding summer-grade volumes. Outflows were notably high to North America, Latin America and west Africa.

Spot booking for tankers loading during the week to today were around twice the level recorded over the prior week. Tankers left for the Mideast Gulf, the Americas and west Africa. Tankers arrived from the Baltic region, Denmark, Finland, France, Sweden and the UK. Low water levels on the Rhine river inhibited barge traffic from inland refineries to the ARA area.

Naphtha stocks fell heavily for a second consecutive week, to a 16-week low of 251,000t. The reduction was caused by good demand from gasoline blenders and petrochemical end-users in Europe. Naphtha flows from ARA into the continent have proven more resilient to high barge freight rates than have flows of gasoline and gasoil, as most end-users are unable to significantly alter feedstock slates. Tankers arrived from Latvia, Portugal, Russia and Spain, and none were recorded leaving the area.

Gasoil stocks fell by 5.6pc to 2.44mn t, the lowest since early April. Rhine water levels rose marginally in recent days, potentially allowing an increase in product flows. German 10ppm and 50ppm diesel barges have found support over the last week. The former traded recently at 25¢/t discounts to Ice September gasoil, compared with discounts of $1/t around a week earlier. German 50ppm barges assessed differentials climbed to discounts of $7.50/t to Ice September gasoil, compared with discounts of $10.50/t a week earlier. Tankers left ARA for France, Sweden and west Africa.

Jet fuel stocks rose by 4.6pc to 677,000t. The STI Selatar and Dubai Brilliance arrived at Rotterdam at the end of last week, each carrying 90,000t of jet fuel from Yangpu, China, and Ruwais, UAE, respectively. Shell exported 30,000t of jet from Rotterdam on the Seashark, which arrived at Copenhagen today. High northwest European import volumes from east of Suez last week and this week have not been reflected in stock levels, suggesting sufficient demand to absorb incoming volumes. A slowdown in arrivals after next week, alongside the start of the refinery turnaround season, could see the market tighten.

Fuel oil inventories fell by 7.1pc to 1.03mn t. Tankers left ARA for the Mideast Gulf and Mediterranean regions during the week, and arrived from France and Russia.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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