Oilmarket Blog

ARA independent product stocks up

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 20 juli 2018 12:03:12

London, 19 July (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose by 6pc week on week to 5.8mn t today.

The increase was mostly driven by a 13pc rise in total fuel oil inventories, but stocks of most other oil product rose as barge freight rates continue to rise, weighing on demand. Barge freight rates on the Rotterdam-Karlsruhe route increased by 26pc on the week to $24/t and are now at their highest level since at least July 2017. Jet fuel stocks fell amid high seasonal demand.

Fuel oil inventories rose with no very large crude carriers (VLCCs) departing the area in the week to today. The VLCC Stallion, chartered by South Korea’s SK Energy to carry a 270,000t cargo to Singapore, was loading during the reporting period. The VLCC Fida, chartered by Shell to also carry a 270,000t cargo to Singapore, began loading on 14 July. Smaller cargoes left the area for the Mideast Gulf and the Mediterranean. Stored volumes were supported by cargoes arriving from the Black Sea, France, Russia, Spain and the UAE.

Gasoil inventories rose by 2.5pc, supported by an influx of diesel arriving from the UAE on board the VLCC Stallion. The newbuild was chartered by Asia-Pacific trading firm Winson Oil to carry a 270,000t ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) cargo to northwest Europe from Fujairah, arriving 10 July. The tanker partially discharged via ship-to-ship transfer offshore Southwold in the UK, before unloading fully in the port of Rotterdam, and being chartered to carry fuel oil to Singapore.

As with other products, the high Rhine barge freight rates impacted gasoil outflows. Barge freight rates on at least one route rose to double the cost of the equivalent pipeline transfer. Cargoes arrived from Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Gasoline inventories rose by 9pc. Transatlantic outflows remained at the levels seen in recent weeks but outgoing volumes to west Africa were lower on the week. Cargoes departed the ARA area for Canada, Latin America, the US and west Africa. Cargoes arrived from Finland, France, Norway and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose by 3pc, supported by rising volumes of cargo arriving from Algeria. Demand from inland petrochemical end-users firmed on the week as falls in underlying crude prices boosted cracking margins. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, France, Portugal, Russia and the UK. None left the area during the reporting period.

Jet kerosine stocks fell by 1.8pc as demand remained strong through the peak summer flying season. And buying interest for jet fuel barges in the ARA increased, with market participants seeking to move volumes to regional airports. The Sti Precision arrived into Rotterdam on 13 July with 65,000t of jet fuel from Bahrain. A single cargo departed the ARA hub for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks fall on the week

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 13 juli 2018 13:02:57

London, 12 July (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 2pc week on week to 5.5mn t today.

The decrease was prompted by a 20pc fall in total fuel oil inventories. Other oil product stocks rose, as low water levels on the Rhine continued to weigh on flows.

Fuel oil inventories fell although no very large crude carriers were reported leaving ARA this week. Cargoes — including two loaded on the Suezmaxes the Bouboulina and the Delta Hellas — departed for the Mideast Gulf, the Mediterranean and Singapore. Cargoes arrived from Estonia, Russia, the UK and Canada. Inflows from Canada are sporadic and tend to be high sulphur fuel oil.

The VLCC Fida is due to begin loading fuel oil from Rotterdam on 14 July.

Naphtha recorded the highest rise in percentage terms. Stocks rose by 11pc amid weaker demand from gasoline and petrochemical end-users. Around half the usual volume left the ARA on barges amid higher Rhine freight costs, which hit their highest since August 2017. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, Norway, Portugal, Russian and the UK.

Gasoil inventories rose by 5pc on weaker demand for heating oil and industrial gasoil. Gasoil cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Russia, the UAE and the US. Tankers departed for the Mediterranean and the UK.

Jet kerosine stocks rose by 4pc, reaching their highest since 16 November 2017. Demand for jet kerosine is seasonally steady but outflows were limited by barge loading restrictions. A 70,000t cargo arrived from Saudi Arabia, and two tankers left the ARA area for Norway and the UK.

Gasoline inventories were broadly stable, rising by less than 1pc. Outflows to North America were healthy, at around 185,000t, but outgoing volume was offset by inflows from the Mediterranean and northwest Europe. Cargoes also departed the ARA area for the Mideast Gulf and the Mediterranean. Cargoes departed the ARA for Argentina, Canada, Latin America, west Africa and the US. Cargoes arrived from Denmark, France, Italy, Spain and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks fall on the week

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 6 juli 2018 8:50:24

London, 5 July (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 1pc week on week to reach 5.6mn t today.

The decrease in total stocks was driven by a 7pc fall in fuel oil inventories prompted by the eastbound departure of the VLCC Atromitos. Stocks of gasoline and naphtha also fell week-on-week, while jet and gasoil inventories rose. Low water levels on the Rhine impacted the barge markets, reducing flows in and out of the ARA area from Germany.

Fuel oil inventories recorded the most significant change in volume, falling by 106,000t to 1.51mn t. The Atromitos is likely to have left the area carrying around 270,000t of fuel oil, but stored volumes were bolstered by aframaxes arriving from Poland, Russia and the UK. Inflows to the ARA area from Russia rebounded to around 850,000t in June after falling to just over 700,000t in May as a result of refinery maintenance in the country. The VLCC Fida is due to begin loading fuel oil from Rotterdam on 14 July, while the same-sized Front Prince has been awaiting loading in Rotterdam since 14 June.

Gasoline inventories declined by 6pc to 985mn t amid rising transatlantic exports. At least 222,000t of European gasoline was booked in the spot tanker market to load in the ARA region in the week to 5 July with transatlantic discharge options, up from 130,000t in the previous week. EIA data show robust US gasoline imports: the four-week moving average of imports was 828,000 b/d in the week to 29 June. Cargoes also departed the ARA area for the Mideast Gulf and the Mediterranean. Cargoes arrived from France, Italy and the UK.

Gasoil inventories rose by 5pc to 2.1mn t. Demand for heating oil and industrial gasoil was very weak, with diesel accounting for the vast proportion of the total gasoil demand. But low Rhine water levels limited outflows from the ARA area to inland destinations. Gasoil cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Finland, Russia, Sweden, the UAE and the US. Vessels departed for Spain and the UK.

Naphtha stocks recorded the largest percentage fall, decreasing by 10pc to 319,000t. No cargoes arrived from Algeria where there is maintenance work at the 350,000 b/d Skikda refinery. Maintenance at petrochemical plants in Germany prompted a reduction in naphtha barges leaving the ARA area for discharge along the Rhine. Increasing gasoline demand from the US may stimulate naphtha demand over the coming week, putting further downward pressure on inventories. Cargoes arrived from Poland, Russia and the UK. No seaborne naphtha cargoes left the ARA area.

Jet stocks rose by 4.3pc to 696,000t, reaching the highest level since 7 December 2017. The Ust Luga arrived into Rotterdam on 27 June. Vitol chartered the vessel to take 90,000t of jet fuel to northwest Europe from the Mideast Gulf, but the vessel partially offloaded in Augusta, Sicily. Demand for jet was healthy in line with seasonal expectations but outflows from the ARA area were again limited by barge loading restrictions.

Reporter: Thomas Warner 

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ARA independent product stocks edge up

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 29 juni 2018 9:56:23

London, 28 June (Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose by 2pc week on week to reach 5.7mn t today.

The increase in total stocks was driven by a 5pc rise in fuel oil inventories to around 1.61mn t, the highest level on record. The rise in fuel oil inventories resulted from high levels of incoming cargo and volume awaiting loading onto two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) currently docked in Rotterdam.

Fuel oil cargoes arrived in ARA over the last week from the Black Sea, Estonia, Norway and Russia. Cargoes left the area for the Mediterranean.

Gasoil stocks were steady. Demand from inland Germany firmed on the week but remains below the seasonal average. Low Rhine water levels impacted diesel and gasoil loadings, which are at around 70pc of their normal levels. Diesel demand from France and Switzerland was firm amid lower inventories in the two countries. Gasoil cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Russia, the US and west Africa. Cargoes left for France, Germany, Portugal and the UK.

Naphtha stocks recorded the largest percentage rise, increasing by 7pc amid weakening demand from petrochemical end users and a lack of interest from gasoline blenders. Barge loadings restrictions on the river Rhine also affected Naphtha flows. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, Russia, Spain and the UK.

Jet kerosine stocks were steady amid stable demand. A 90,000t cargo arrived in the ARA area from Yanbu, discharging on 25 June in Antwerp. A single cargo left the area for the UK.

Gasoline inventories declined slightly amid rising transatlantic exports and higher outflows to other European markets. Cargoes departed ARA for Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Latin America, the US and west Africa. Cargoes arrived from Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner 

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Traders Race to Move ARA Diesel Up Rhine as River Dries: PJK

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 28 juni 2018 13:37:25

(Bloomberg) — Rhine barge flows of diesel/gasoil have
increased to 150k tons a week (~160k b/d) from lows of less than 100k tons/week in May, Lars van Wageningen, operations manager at PJK International, says by phone.
* “Demand is quite high due to falling water levels. Quite some diesel is flowing inland,” Wageningen says, adding that flows expected to continue rising into next week.
* READ: Barge rates to Basel surge amid falling water levels.
* Says backwardation in gasoil last 2 months significantly limited demand for shipments up the Rhine, but shift into contango has reversed that trend and is now encouraging stockpiling.
** NOTE: 1M-2M contango stood at $1/ton on Thursday, compared with $4.25 of backwardation a month ago: ICE Futures Europe data.
* Van Wageningen sees inland demand staying strong in coming months ahead as “hardly any winter gasoil stockpiling was done during the period of backwardation”.
* Diesel/gasoil flows surged to 250k tons in March, highest this year, when cold weather prompted a surge in gasoil flows to meet high heating demand.
* Gasoline and component flows are mixed between flows up and down the Rhine but generally about 25k tons per week of gasoline, components are sent to ARA.
* Also says jet fuel flows inland to Germany have increased in recent weeks to about 10k-15k tons per week; inland market mostly served by pipeline.
** NOTE: Figures compiled by PJK are for total Rhine flows; almost all diesel/gasoil Rhine barge flows inland from ARA, while gasoline/components can flow in both directions; naphtha also travels inland while fuel oil is exported to ARA.
Reporter: Bill Lehane

Find out more about oil product flows up and down the Rhine 

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ARA independent product stocks fall

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 22 juni 2018 8:30:21

London, 21 June (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by just over 2pc week-on-week to reach 5.6mn t today.

The decrease in total stocks was driven by a 5pc fall in gasoil inventories, to around 2mn t. Diesel demand from inland Germany is firmer relative to recent weeks, and falling Rhine water levels have prompted a pick-up in gasoil barge traffic on the river in expectation of higher freight prices.

Gasoil cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Finland, Russia and the US at lower levels than those reported in recent weeks. Significant diesel volumes are currently being booked to arrive in Europe from east of Suez. Vessels left the area for Spain and the UK. The premium of second-month Ice gasoil futures to the front-month contract rose on 20 June to its highest in more than three months, at $1/bl.

Fuel oil stocks rose by 3.6pc on the week to a 15-month high of 1.53mn t, having built up in recent weeks amid minimal fuel oil loadings in Rotterdam and steady imports. Stocks should fall next week as two Singapore-bound VLCCs are currently in Rotterdam waiting to load up to 540,000t of fuel oil. The two vessels – Front Prince and Saham – booked by trading firm Vitol and an unnamed charterer, respectively, are the first VLCCs booked on the route to Asia-Pacific since March.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4pc week-on-week as a result of lower import volumes and an increase in exports, particularly to the US. But stock levels remain high and the European gasoline market continues to be oversupplied. Cargoes arrived from Finland, France, Norway and the UK. Vessels left the area for Algeria, the Mideast Gulf, Canada, Estonia, Latin America, west Africa and the US.

Jet fuel stocks declined by 3pc over the past week amid seasonally high demand and no seaborne cargo arrivals. Demand from buyers along the Rhine also firmed. A single cargo left the ARA area, bound for the UK.

Naphtha stocks fell by nearly 5pc to 329,000t. The naphtha market remains in backwardation, but stored volumes are still above the weekly average recorded so far this year, as a result of weak demand from gasoline blenders and general supply length around Europe. Cargoes arrived from Russia and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA independent product stocks rise

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 15 juni 2018 16:03:30

London, 14 June (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub climbed by just over 7pc week-on-week to reach 5.7mn t today, marking a two-month high.

The increase in total stocks was largely a result of a substantial gain in fuel oil inventories, which were up by nearly a third week-on-week. No tankers loaded the product from Rotterdam during the period, keeping northwest Europe oversupplied. But fuel oil exports are likely to rebound as shipping activity has picked up in northwest Europe, with tankers booked to Asia-Pacific and the Mideast Gulf. Two Singapore-bound very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have arrived in Rotterdam to start loading fuel oil later this month.

Diesel stocks rose slightly because of comparatively high imports, particularly from the Baltic Sea. The product also arrived from Poland and the Mideast Gulf, while some diesel was shipped form the ARA region to France, the UK and west Africa. Stocks are under pressure from firm demand, which is likely to tighten the market later this month.

Gasoline stocks increased by 5pc week-on-week. The European gasoline market remains oversupplied as an increase in US demand was offset by weak buying interest from west Africa and Asia-Pacific. Arbitrages on most long-haul export routes were largely unviable, putting pressure on gasoline prices in the ARA region. European gasoline output remained high, contributing to the increase in stocks. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean market remains tight, drawing product from the north.

Jet fuel stocks declined marginally during the past week despite rising exports from the Mideast Gulf, as tankers carrying jet fuel arrived into northwest European ports outside the ARA hub. The region is set to receive at least 290,000t of jet fuel from east of Suez during the week to 16 June, compared with 145,000t a week earlier.

Naphtha stocks fell by nearly 6pc, after having been buoyed the prior week by cargoes arriving from the US Gulf Coast. Demand for light virgin naphtha from European gasoline blenders remains weak and is largely covered by local supplies. Last week, tanker bookings emerging with Asia-Pacific discharge options reached 340,000t, the highest weekly total since late April. The four cargoes are due to load between 20-27 June.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA oil product stocks rise on the week

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 8 juni 2018 12:57:31

London, 7 June (Argus) – Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose by 2pc in the week to today, driven by stock builds on all recorded products except gasoil, according to consultancy PJK.

Independent gasoil inventories fell by 1pc to 2.07mn t. Import volumes and European buying interest were subdued, as the market backwardation narrowed. Cargoes arrived from the Baltic region, Russia and the US. Tankers left ARA for France, Spain and the UK.

Fuel oil inventories rose by 3pc to 1.14mn t. Cargoes arrived from France, Poland, Russia and the UK and departed for the Mediterranean region. No very large crude carrier (VLCC) loadings were recorded in the week — fuel oil stock draws in the ARA area are typically the result of VLCC loadings.

Gasoline inventories rose by 5pc to 1.05mn t. Weak demand from the US affected outbound volumes. Transatlantic shipments are a key factor in determining ARA stock levels. Cargoes arrived from France, Finland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Spain and the UK. Cargoes left for Canada, Latin America, the Mediterranean, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks rose by 10pc to 366,000t, a ten-week high. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, Russia and the UK and no seaborne cargoes departed. Naphtha demand from the European blending pool was subdued by the weak US gasoline demand and, with demand from the continent’s petrochemical sector also subdued, tank storage became an attractive option. High levels of naphtha supply in Europe are supporting outflows to Asia-Pacific from ports outside the ARA area.

Jet fuel stocks reached a 23-week high, rising by 4pc to 685,000t. Cargoes arrived from India and Russia, and a single cargo left for the UK. The rise in inventories was prompted by stockbuilding ahead of peak summer season.

The ARA and Rhine barge markets were subdued, with urgent booking interest muted against a backdrop of stable prices.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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ARA oil product stocks stable on the week

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 1 juni 2018 13:25:51

London, 31 May (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by 1pc on the week to today, amid broadly stable market fundamentals.

Independent gasoil inventories rose by 2pc to 2.08mn t, up by 44,000t on the week. Demand from inland buyers remained stable at a low level, with backwardation incentivising traders to wait for mid-June cargoes. Cargoes arrived from the Baltics, Finland and Russia at levels broadly in line with exported volumes. A single cargo was reported leaving the ARA area for the UK.

Fuel oil inventories fell by 15pc to 1.1mn t. Three Suezmaxes loaded fuel oil from Rotterdam during the reporting period. They included the Eurochampion 2004 and Pecos — respectively chartered by Shell and Azerbaijan’s state-owned trading firm Socar for delivery to Singapore — and the Suezmax Tataki that departed for Dakar. Fuel oil cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Estonia, France, Norway, Russia and the UK.

Gasoline inventories were broadly stable, rising by 1pc to 1mn t, recovering very slightly from the five-month low reported a week earlier. No cargoes were reported leaving for the Mideast Gulf, as part of trend of lower exports to the region since the European switch to summer-grade product in April. Export volumes to the US also fell on weakening transatlantic arbitrage economics. Cargoes left the ARA area for Canada, Latin America, west Africa, Singapore and the US. Incoming gasoline cargoes arrived from France, Italy, Spain and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose by 17pc to an eight-week high of 332,000t. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, Estonia, Portugal, Russia and the UK, with no seaborne cargoes reported leaving the ARA area. Naphtha demand from gasoline blenders in northwest Europe has fallen in line with lower transatlantic gasoline export volumes. Demand from the European petrochemical sector was reported steady.

Jet fuel stocks rose by 3pc to a 20-week high of 658,000t. A 90,000t cargo arrived in Rotterdam onboard the Maersk Petrel, and the LR2-sized Polaris arrived from Sikka on 28 May. A single cargo was seen leaving for the UK. The rise in inventories was prompted by stockbuilding ahead of peak summer season. Jet fuel stocks in January-May held independently in the ARA region remain at their lowest since 2015 when compared with average stocks held over the same period each year.

Significant excess capacity was reported in the ARA and Rhine barge markets, with backwardation in all relevant markets reducing urgent buying interest.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

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What drives demand for tank storage?

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 31 mei 2018 9:04:01

PJK’s tank terminal commercial performance model

In this article we would like to explain PJK’s tank terminal commercial performance model and why this model offers essential insights into tank storage demand drivers.

Eager to know on a structural base what moves tank storage demand? Click here for a FREE trial of PJK’s Tank Terminal Week Report.

Intro PJK’s conceptual model

PJK’s tank terminal commercial performance model (see figure: 1) shows the relation between a terminal’s market environment and its commercial performance. The environment is divided into market fundamentals (which have a slow rate of change) and market dynamics (which have a fast rate of change). In our model the fundamentals drive dynamics. A terminal that has a good fit with market dynamics will find storage rates are being better supported. Besides market dynamics also market fundamentals influence storage rates.

Market fundamentals (see figure 2) are:
• The shape of the forward curve,
• The competitive structure and
• Logistical factors such as supply, demand, imbalances and trade flows.

 

Market dynamics (see figure 3) are:
• Inventory levels;
• Arbitrage and trade flows,
• Changes in product spec, and
• Variation in vessel sizes.

These variables have a direct impact on a terminal’s operations and on a terminal’s requirements. When a terminal is able to react faster to these dynamics in relation to its competition, it is more likely that it can create superior commercial performance.

PJK’s Tank Terminal Week Report has been based on these essential parametrics that drive tank storage demand. This report will improve your understanding of the world of oil trading and as a result offers you the chance to make intelligent decisions. Contact PJK International for more information. Or register on our website for the weekly newsletter.

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