Oilmarket Blog

Planned investments, where are pockets of growth?

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 18 april 2018 15:22:36

Introduction

All over the world, there are independent tank storage companies that support market players in storing their oil products. They help oil companies that have downstream obligations with storing products or support trading companies seizing (arbitrage) opportunities or governments and oil companies with building their strategic reserves. Tank terminals have an important of not a primary function in the oil and gas value chain.

Terminals per region

At the moment, the TankTerminals.com database consist of 4.628 tank terminals per geographical region. This number is not evenly spread over these regions. The applicable regions are Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania, North America, Central America and South America.

Planned expansions

In figure 1 can be seen that most of the expansions are planned in the Middle East with 45% of the planned expansion allocated in this region. This region is followed by Asia with more than 25% of the planned expansions and Europe with more than 10% of the planned expansions. North America, Central America and Africa are other regions that have some expansions planned.

In terms of capacity were are talking about almost 40.000kcbm in the Middle East. Asia follows with more than 20.000kcbm and Europe with around 12.000kcbm. The other regions have all less than 6.500kcbm expansions planned.

When we sum all capacity projects that are under construction, under expansion or planned the main growth area is the Middle East that will practically double in capacity. Other relatively fast growing tank storage areas are Africa and Oceania. In absolute terms, capacity growth in these regions are small.

Curious to learn more about the global tank storage industry and what the value is from these statistics for your business, contact us.

Jacob van den Berge, Market & Sales Manager TankTerminals.com & PJK International

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In which region is the most tank storage capacity under construction?

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 12 april 2018 19:39:18

Introduction

All over the world, there are independent tank storage companies that support market players in storing their oil products. They help oil companies that have downstream obligations with storing products or support trading companies seizing (arbitrage) opportunities or governments and oil companies with building their strategic reserves. Tank terminals have an important of not a primary function in the oil and gas value chain.

Terminals per region

At the moment, the TankTerminals.com database consist of more than 4.700 tank terminals per geographical region. This number is not evenly spread over these regions. The applicable regions are Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania, North America, Central America and South America.

Under construction

In figure 1 can be seen that in total there is 37.529kcbm under construction. The most tank storage capacity is in Asia. This is around 20.829kcbm or 56% of the total capacity. The Asian region is followed by South America (5.491kcbm or 15%) and Africa (4.027kcbm or 11%). Other more mature regions with respect to tank storage assets (Europe and North America) have only little capacity under construction. This ranges between 2% and 7%.

Some examples of major projects in Asia are from Brightoil in China. According to the latest news, in Dalian the capacity that is under construction is 4.800kcbm and Zhoushan is 1.200kcbm. Another major project is the joint venture between Petronas and Vopak of 2.100kcbm which will be commissioned in 1Q19.

Under expansion

Figure 2 shows that in total there is 20.461kcbm under expansion. Also in this case, Asia is the region where the most tank storage capacity is under expansion. Around 9.427kcbm or 46% of capacity is under expansion. Asia is followed by Europe (4.250kcbm or 21%) and North America (3.720kcbm or 18%). Other regions have little capacity under expansion which ranges between 1% and 7%.

Curious to learn more about the global tank storage industry and what the value is from these statistics for your business, contact us.

Jacob van den Berge, Market & Sales Manager TankTerminals.com & PJK International

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ARA oil product stocks fall

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 6 april 2018 8:22:49

London, 5 April (Argus) — Oil products held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell by more than 5pc this week, largely because of a sharp decline in fuel oil inventories.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 21pc. The trade route to Asia-Pacific remains workable, and some product was exported to supply the west Africa bunkering market. Suezmax British Heritage left Rotterdam for west Africa yesterday. The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Olympic Liberty, chartered by Koch to transport 270,000t of cracked fuel oil to Singapore, departed Rotterdam on 3 April. It is the second VLCC to depart the Dutch port in the past week. The Gener8 Hercules left Rotterdam for Asia-Pacific on 29 March. VLCC Olympic Leopard is scheduled to load in Rotterdam by the middle of April.

Imports of Russian fuel oil from the Baltic Sea remained steady.

Naphtha has been moving eastbound because of strong demand from the Asia-Pacific petrochemicals sector and short condensate supplies from the Mideast Gulf. Naphtha stocks declined, shedding around 20,000t or 5pc. Northwest Europe remained well-supplied with naphtha, and regional end-users including German firm BASF offered cargoes.

Gasoline stocks in the ARA region fell by nearly 2pc from the prior week. Prompt Eurobob prices rose sharply during the week, hitting the appeal of buying volumes in ARA for export markets. Transatlantic gasoline shipments fell sharply — spot fixtures dropped below 300,000t from more than 900,000t in the prior week. Spot bookings to Latin America and west Africa declined.

Diesel stocks declined by around 2.5pc. Inland demand was firm, stimulating movement from the ARA region. Diesel imports from the US remained low, and flows from the former Soviet Union are likely to decline in April because of planned refinery maintenance works in Russia.

Jet fuel stocks bucked the trend to rise marginally. Northwest Europe imported jet fuel from the Mideast Gulf, and some product was shipped to the UK. European jet fuel imports are likely to increase in April, and demand is likely to hold steady. Trading firm Gulf Petroleum has provisionally booked the BW Danube to take 60,000t of jet fuel to northwest Europe from Sikka, India, loading 6 April.

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In what region is tank capacity the highest?

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 5 april 2018 11:08:25

Introduction

All over the world, there are independent tank storage companies that support market players in storing their oil products. They help oil companies that have downstream obligations with storing products or support trading companies seizing (arbitrage) opportunities or governments and oil companies with building their strategic reserves. Tank terminals have an important of not a primary function in the oil and gas value chain.

Terminals per region

At time of writing, the TankTerminals.com database consist of 4.628 tank terminals per geographical region. This number is not evenly spread over these regions. The applicable regions are Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania, North America, Central America and South America. In table 1, you can see the number of terminals per region.

Table 1: terminals per region (approximate figures)

Region # terminals # tanks Market share
Africa >150 >2.500 4%
Asia >850 >22.000 19%
Europa >1100 >28.000 24%
Middle East >125 >2.500 3%
Oceania >60 >1.250 2%
North America >1500 >25.000 35%
Central America >175 >3.500 4%
South America >400 >7.000 10%

From this table can be derived that most terminals are located in the US followed by Europe and Asia. Smaller regions with respect to terminals are Middle East, Africa and Oceania.
When analyzing tank storage capacity per region and per terminal, some clear distinctions can be found as can be seen from table 2.

Table 2: capacity per region (approximate figures)

Region Capacity (cbm) Market share Av. Cap. (cbm)
Africa >30.000 3% >150
Asia >320.000 34% >350
Europa >250. 27% >225
Middle East >45.000 5% >370
Oceania >4.000 0.4% >60
North America >20.000 23% >125
Central America >38.000 4% >180
South America >30.000 3% >70

Tanks per terminal and average capacity

In table 2 can be seen that most storage capacity is currently in Asia, followed by Europe and North America. Because of this perspective the top 3 has reshuffled and makes Asia, the region with most tank storage capacity.

When combining table 1 and table 2 the following charts can be derived: chart 1 tanks per terminal per region and chart 2 Average capacity per region.

Chart 1 shows that Asia and Europe have the most tanks per terminal. Both regions have more than 25 tanks per terminal. Middle East and Oceania follow by more than 20 tanks per terminal.

Chart 1 Tanks per Terminal

Chart 2 Average capacity per region

In chart 2 can be seen that the Middle East holds the most capacity per terminal. In the case of this region the average capacity per terminal is 370cbm. A good second place has been taken in by Asia with 350cbm. The third place is for Europe. The average capacity per terminal globally is 200cbm. This leaves Central America, Africa, North America, South America and Oceania.

The reason behind this ordering, although not part of this analysis, is that tank terminals in the Middle Eastern Asian region are new compared to more matured tank terminal regions such as Europe. Furthermore, especially in the case of the Middle East national governments have a stake in these assets. Both variables have led to the build of assets with a larger average capacity.

Curious to learn more about the global tank storage industry and what the value is from these statistics for your business, contact us.

Jacob van den Berge, Market & Sales Manager TankTerminals.com & PJK International

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Gasoil barge flows out of ARA increase

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 30 maart 2018 9:15:22

As a trader who is exposed to the Northwest European oil products market, information on changes in supply, demand and imbalances are essential to enable good market timing. With the development of the Rhine Flow Service, PJK International has developed an information tool that offers insights in the last blind spot of the ARA Supply and Demand Puzzle.

What is the Rhine Flow Service?

The Rhine Flow Service is a report that offers insights in oil product flows up and down the Rhine. Information is gathered by connecting different sources. Sources that are consulted are video footage positioned strategically near the German border along the Rhine, PJK’s internal database of barges which holds information on size and type and AIS tracking data.

Gasoil, ARA’s mostly traded commodity

In our report of March 15 we saw that for gasoil, the largest oil product group in volume traded and shipped in the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) region, the volume was 248kt up the Rhine and almost 6kt down the Rhine. Data is gathered by our team of analysts on a daily base and the reporting period extends from Wednesday till Tuesday.

Looking at the product slate that is transported by barges ex. ARA to hinterland markets and back around in the week to 15 March (net-(ex)imports) around 70% was gasoil (see figure 1). The second largest oil product group in kt volume that week was naphtha with around 61kt followed by fuel oil with 19.5kt.

Figure 1: product slate RFS report of March 15

PJK International started gathering and reporting on the flows to and from Germany since late December 2017. Since that week historic data has been build up. As can be seen in figure 2, in the period between December 27 and February 14 volumes fluctuated around the average weekly volume which was around 146kt. After this period, volumes flowing out of the region increased and reached a high so far at 242kt on March 15. The low stood at 98kt on January 24.

Figure 2: Historic data gasoil RFS report March 15

Main benefits of Rhine Flow Service

Information on supply and demand and trade flows will lead to changes in stocks and offers a trading company insight if the region is short or long. The last piece in this ARA supply and demand puzzle is information on barge movements to and from this region. That is that extra piece of information, that will give a trading company that extra competitive edge

In short the main benefits of the Rhine Flow Service are:
a. Understanding and anticipating barge flows enables good market timing and better trading performance.
b. Info on barge flows is not available but these flows are a significant factor in ARA S/D balances and product pricing.

When you are interested to know more and experience for yourself what the value of this information service is for your company, please contact me and I will sent you a PowerPoint presentation with more background on the working of the Rhine Flow Service tool.

Jacob van den Berge, Marketing and Sales Manager

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ARA oil product stocks hit 10-month high

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 9 maart 2018 9:17:40

London, 8 March (Argus) — Oil products in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region rose by just under 7pc on the week to a 10-month high at 6.29mn t today, according to consultancy PJK.

Fuel oil stock levels increased by 314,000t on the week, accounting for around three-quarters of the total stock build recorded on 2-8 March. Higher stocks reflected a combination of larger inflows from Finland, France, Poland and Russia, and a dip in export volumes. One very large crude carrier (VLCC) — the Daba — sailed from Rotterdam to Singapore, but only a fraction of its cargo was taken into account by this week data as its loading began in the week to 1 March. Another smaller tanker — the Suezmax Sonangol Cazenga — was booked by Petroineos to load 147,000t of cracked fuel oil. Tracking tools showed this tanker still moored at Rotterdam yesterday. Stocks are unlikely to stay elevated next week, with three VLCCs — the DionaOlympic Liberty and Zourva — booked to load as much as 810,000t of cracked fuel oil during 10-20 March. Arbitrage economics to Asia-Pacific have improved in the past week, at least on paper, while fuel oil demand in northwest Europe remains subdued.

Gasoil inventory rose by 115,000t in the week, against a backdrop of rising import volumes. Cargoes arrived from India, Latvia, Poland, Russia and Saudi Arabia. On the demand side, seaborne trade was limited to the UK but shipments up the Rhine topped 170,000t in the week to today, setting a fresh 2018-to-date high. The impact of frozen canals and locks in northwest Europe on barge traffic last week continued, with higher freight rates reported in the ARA and along the Rhine.

Naphtha stock levels firmed by 21,000t on the week amid persistently poor demand from the cracking pool. Naphtha’s premium to rival petrochemical feedstock propane crept up to $140/t in the week to today, its highest level since August 2015. Higher inflows from France, Algeria, Russia and the UK also contributed to the stockbuild.

Jet inventory held steady on the week. Seaborne supply came to a standstill in the week to today, but tracking tools showed several cargoes bound to reach northwest Europe in the coming weeks.

In contrast with other oil products, gasoline stocks declined by 40,000t on the week. The stock draw was mostly driven by increased export volumes, said PJK. Flows to North America — including the US, Canada and the Caribbean — were up on the week, and cargoes with Mideast Gulf discharge options were spotted again. Product was also exported to the UK, west Africa and Latin America. On the supply side, steady volumes came from France, Norway, Spain and the UK. Inflows from refineries along the Rhine into the ARA were stable on the week, according to PJK, at around 25,000t on 2-8 March.

Argus reporter: Benoit Petre

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ARA stocks fell from near 10-month high

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 2 maart 2018 9:28:02

London, 1 March (Argus) — Oil products in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region fell by 6.5pc to 5.88mn t this week, ending a five-week run which brought inventories to near 10-month high, according to consultancy PJK.

Gasoil experienced the second biggest stock draw after fuel oil, with inventories falling by close to 120,000t on the week, on firmer demand from the ARA and European hinterland. Barge outflows from ARA up the Rhine rose to 170,000t in the week, its highest weekly tally since the beginning of 2018, according to PJK’s Rhine Flow Service (RFS) estimates. Seaborne cargoes arrived from the Mideast Gulf, India, Russia and the US and heading to Ireland and the UK.

Fuel oil stocks fell by 237,000t in the week to 1 March as export volumes bounced back from the low levels recorded on 16-22 February. The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Bukha and the Suezmax Loire chartered by Shell and Socar, respectively, sailed from ARA to Singapore this week. The Daba — another VLCC chartered by Koch — has started to load in the week to 1 March, pulling more fuel oil from regional storage facilities. And outflows to Asia-Pacific are likely to remain high in the coming weeks with fixture lists showing an additional three VLCCs scheduled to load during 10-25 March. On the supply side, import volumes remained steady with product coming from Estonia, Poland, Russia, the UK and the US.

Naphtha stock levels recorded a drop of 26,000t, owing to lower inflows. Cargoes were imported from France, Russia and Spain, but arrival from key supplier Algeria came to a standstill this week. Sluggish demand from petrochemical end-users weakened further as naphtha’s premium to rival petrochemical feedstock propane topped $130/t, its highest level since August 2015.

Gasoline inventory edged 19,000t down on the week, reflecting a drop in barge supply. PJK’s RFS showed inflows down the Rhine into the ARA declining to 25,000t in the week to 1 March, down by around 15,000t from a week earlier. Export volumes remained broadly steady with more products heading to the US and fewer shipments going to west Africa. Cargoes of European gasoline were also shipped to Latin America and the Mediterranean region. Seaborne cargoes arrived from Denmark, France, Norway, Sweden and the UK.

Jet stocks hit a 29-week low on 1 March, echoing supply tightness in the broader northwest European market. But shipping lists pointed out to increased arrival volumes into Europe in March compared with February, with some vessels displaying ARA discharge options.

Argus reporter: Benoit Petre

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ARA oil product stocks hit near 10-month high

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 23 februari 2018 9:45:55

London, 22 February (Argus) — Oil products in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region rose for the fifth consecutive week, lifting inventories to a near 10-month high of 6.3mn t today, according to consultancy PJK.

Fuel oil stocks climbed 157,000t in the week on the back of a substantial drop in export volumes. The Aspen Spirit — a MR-range tanker with Algeciras discharge options — was the sole vessel to sail from the ARA region this week. Outflows of fuel oil are likely to bounce back next week as two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have just reached their berths to start loading. On the supply side, seaborne cargoes arrived from Poland and Russia.

Gasoline inventories rose by 60,000t on the week, reflecting lower seaborne export volumes and rising inflows of gasoline barges. Cargoes were shipped to the Mideast Gulf, Canada, Mexico, Asia-Pacific, the US and west Africa. Barge supply from the hinterland into the ARA rose to 40,000t in the week, up by 5,000t from a week earlier, according to PJK’s Rhine Flow Service (RFS) estimates. Seaborne cargoes came from Finland, France, Norway and Sweden.

In contrast to fuel oil and gasoline, stocks of gasoil, naphtha and jet fuel oil fell by a combined 68,000t.

Gasoil inventories dropped by 27,000t as more cargoes moved to the European hinterland and to the Mediterranean. PJK’s Rhine Flow Service (RFS) showed outflows up the Rhine hitting 150,000t in the week to today, their highest levels since the beginning of the week. Cargoes were also exported to Italy, Spain and the UK. On the supply side, inflows from Russia were described as greater than the previous week by PJK, with additional volumes coming from Latvia.

Naphtha stocks fell by 27,000t as well, reflecting larger import volumes from Algeria, France, Portugal, Spain and the UK. Regional demand for cracking grades of naphtha remained weak in northwest Europe as steam crackers continued to tap into ample supply of cheap rival petrochemical feedstock propane.

Jet fuel stocks in the ARA region fell to 25-week lows. Import of seaborne jet into the ARA reached a standstill in a week that also saw a single UK-bound cargo leaving the region for the second consecutive week. Refinery maintenance in the Mideast Gulf and Asia has lowered jet fuel exports to northwest Europe. At least 400,000t of jet fuel is scheduled to arrive into northwest Europe in the week to today on six tankers. But five of these are destined for UK ports. The Maersk Producer arrived into Antwerp today, chartered by Unipec and carrying 90,000t of jet fuel from Saudi Arabia. Falling stock levels in northwest Europe and prolonged backwardation in the jet fuel swaps structure have pressured storage costs.

Argus reporter: Benoit Petre

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ARA independent product stocks rise marginally

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 16 februari 2018 13:12:43

London, 1 February (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks held within the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub rose marginally during the past week as a sharp decline in fuel oil stocks was offset by an increase in gasoil inventories.

Fuel oil stocks in the ARA region fell by 13.5pc as the VLCC Daniel, booked by Socar in mid-January, loaded fuel oil from Rotterdam and left the Dutch port for Singapore, where it is scheduled to arrive on 16 March.

No new VLCC bookings have surfaced on the route from Rotterdam to Singapore during the past week as the arbitrage remains generally unworkable.

And some fuel oil was exported to west Africa to supply the local bunkering market.

Northwest Europe is well supplied with gasoil, which was reflected in an increase in independent stocks in ARA from the prior week. The region continued to import large quantities of the product from Russia, where inland demand is limited.

Jet fuel supplies are falling in northwest Europe because of a decline in imports from the Mideast Gulf. One tanker, the SKS Dokka, arrived in Rotterdam from the Mideast Gulf on 25 January and offloaded into the Dutch port the next day. The vessel was chartered by Shell.

Output in the Middle East region is impacted by maintenance works at Kuwait’s 440,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery.

Exports of European gasoline to west Africa remained comparatively high during the past week, while transatlantic shipments were at a low level despite firm demand in the US, resulting in a 5pc increase in stocks. Product supplied in the US — a proxy for consumption — topped 9mn b/d during 20-26 January for the first time in five weeks. US gasoline stocks held steady during the week ending on 26 January and closed down 6pc from a year earlier.

And naphtha stocks fell by just over 1pc from the previous week.

Demand for naphtha from European gasoline blenders and the petrochemicals sector has been weak as buyers are waiting for a potential decline in prices.

Asia-Pacific — one of the main export markets for European naphtha — remains well-supplied with rival petrochemical feedstock propane, keeping demand for naphtha low.

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ARA independent product stocks increase

Gepubliceerd Jacob on 16 februari 2018 13:09:54

London, 8 February (Argus) — Independent oil product stocks held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose slightly during the past week, largely on the back of an increase in gasoline inventories.

Gasoline stocks increased by 10pc on the week, as export options were limited by rising stocks in the US, a major outlet for European gasoline. Gasoline inventories in the US hit 245.5mn bl (29mn t) on 2 February, a larger gain than most market participants were expecting, hitting nearly a one-year high.

Gasoil stocks also rose, climbing by just over 2pc from the prior week. Inland flows of the product rose slightly, but remained comparatively low at 130,000t. ARA continued to import gasoil from Russia, Finland and the Middle East, but flows from the US were limited.

Firm demand from Latin America drew large volumes of US diesel, resulting in less product available to be exported to Europe. So far in 2017, spot bookings of gasoil cargoes to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from North America have declined by nearly 10pc on the year to 7.25mn t.

Naphtha stocks fell by just 1.6pc from a week earlier. Demand for the open specification naphtha used as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector remained under pressure from abundant supply of rival feedstock propane, but buying interest for light-virgin naphtha from gasoline blenders remained firm amid increased demand from west Africa.

Jet fuel inventories fell to 20-week lows. Supply in northwest Europe remains tight on lower imports from the Mideast Gulf and Asia, and as a result of transatlantic diversions of jet fuel cargoes from east of Suez, which were originally destined for northwest Europe. No jet fuel was imported into the ARA hub this week.

And fuel oil stocks rose slightly during the past weeks ARA continued importing the product from the Baltic Sea. Fuel oil continued to be exported to Asia-Pacific, while some material also left the region for the Mediterranean.

Two VLCCs, the Daniel and the Miltiadis Junior, which were booked in mid-January, and the Suezmax Mikela P loaded fuel oil from Rotterdam and left the Dutch port for Singapore during 30 January-7 February.

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