Vraag & aanbod en scenario planning

Troubles in the Middle East and North Africa

1 oktober 2013 

The second and third quarter of 2013 a number of issues have dominated oil markets. During this period, we have seen tension build up in the Middle East and North Africa and oil prices rise accordingly from $100/bbl to $117/bbl. As a number of major oil producers managed to recover oil production, supply outlook brightened and oil prices fall back to around $105/bbl.

In this eBook we will look at these changing supply and demand fundamentals in further detail. Furthermore, we will analyze three scenarios that are (more or less) likely to occur and have an impact on oil markets.

Troubles in the Middle East and North Africa


Will the Spring Sun Heat Up the Oil Markets?

1 april 2013 

This paper deals with the most important events that have influenced supply and demand fundamentals in the first quarter of 2013.

First, the continuous tension between Iran and the West is described and we will give insight into the complexity of this dispute. Then, the second theme, unconventional shale oil production in the US, is dealt with and their impact to the position of US as consumer. Both supply factors have made oil markets sharp of new developments. On the demand side recent events in Europe: the elections in Italy, the disturbance in Spain and a shock wave from Cyprus, which could have a massive effect on demand for oil, are described.

Will the Spring Sun Heat Up the Oil Markets?


Scenarios for oil markets in 2013

1 januari 2013 

The fourth quarter of 2012 a number of events has dominated oil markets, each with their own impact on oil prices and supply and demand fundamentals. We have seen Hurricane Sandy wrack the US East Coast and increasing tension between Israel and Hamas influence the supply side of oil markets. We have also perceived a strong focus on financial issues in the US and the Eurozone, influencing the demand side of oil markets.

This e-paper will analyze these themes and describe three scenarios that are (more or less) likely to occur.

Scenarios for oil markets in 2013


Volatile Oil Markets 2Q2012

1 juli 2012 

The second quarter of 2012 a number of issues has dominated oil markets. Each of these themes has influenced supply and demand fundamentals in their own specific way. However, one could say oil markets show a-typical reaction in 2012. Despite oil markets have a surplus of oil (products) markets react very volatile to actualities concerning S&D fundamentals.

In this eBook we will look at relevant issues that have influenced oil markets in the second quarter of 2012. Furthermore we will analyze 3 scenarios that are (more or less) likely to occur and have an impact on oil markets.

Volatile Oil Markets 2Q2012


ICE gas oil in Backwardation

31 december 2011 

This week the term structure of ICE gas oil futures definitely turned from contango to backwardation. Tensions in North-Africa and the Mid-East and the Tsunami and resulting nuclear risks in Japan caused the market to turn.

As previously explained in our e-paper “Oil Futures Forward Curve Dynamics” a backwardation implies tight markets with low and/or decreasing inventory levels.

But when looking at ARA oil inventory data it seems as though gas oil stocks are relatively high. So does the economic theory fail the test? The answer is no! Our research tells you why.

PJK has written a research note in which the current situation is analyzed. Also various short and medium term scenarios and their implications for the persistence of the backwardation term structure regime are highlighted.

Research Notes – ICE gas oil in Backwardation


Scenarios for oil markets

31 december 2011 

Recent developments showed that a minor occurrence in Tunis set of a chain-reaction that has resulted in regime switches in Tunisia and Egypt, set off a civil war in Libya and continues to destabilize political situation in various Middle-Eastern countries. The tensions between Israel and Gaza may add yet another dimension to the crisis in the Middle-East.

Oil prices have increased in the last month to new two year highs but the recent drop in prices and high volatility have been caused by hesitant traders that question if high price levels are sustainable. What scenarios are likely going further and how will they influence oil prices? PJK has analysed the current situation and gives its view on matters.

Research notes – scenarios for oil markets


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