Trading

ICE Oil Futures Forward Curves 2012

23 november 2012 

ICE Futures Europe organized a market seminar on November 13 2012 in Rotterdam. Patrick Kulsen from PJK International was invited to participate as keynote speaker. The themes that he addressed were: (1) economics of forward curves, (2) relevance of ARA gasoil stocks for ICE gasoil forward curves and (3) connecting recent fundamentals to ICE gasoil and Brent forward curves.

Oil product forward curves are the thing to watch when you are interested in tank storage and oil inventories. By registering you can download your FREE Slide Pack from the presentation of our colleague Patrick Kulsen.

ICE Oil Futures Forward Curves 2012


Oil prices: Interrelations and Spread Trading

1 januari 2012 

Oil is the most widely traded commodity worldwide. Its importance is reflected in the large share in media attention where the development of oil prices are reported alongside stock indexes and foreign exchange rates.

The media report on “the oil price“ as if there is one price for this heterogeneous commodity. Clearly this is not the case but how does pricing of various crude grades and oil products at various locations relate to each other?

This question is analysed in this paper by utilizing econometric methods. Also the industry practice of spread trading, which is based upon these interrelations, is highlighted.

Oil prices: Interrelations and Spread Trading


The Total Guide to Spread Trading

1 januari 2012 

This e-Book contains all the relevant information you should know about crack spreads, calender spreads and forward curves.

The explanation of this vast subject has been cut into three e-papers. One will cover the linkage between spot and futures prices (Part 1), one will cover the effect of the forward curve on physical markets (Part 2) and the last e-paper will cover the effect of crack spreads on market players (Part 3).

Players that are active in or affiliated to the oil industry should benefit from the basics that are explained in this study.

The Total Guide to Spread Trading


Part 3: The effect of crack spreads

1 januari 2012 

The explanation of this vast subject has been cut into three e-papers. One will cover the linkage between spot and futures prices (Part 1), one will cover the effect of the forward curve on physical markets (Part 2) and the last e-paper will cover the effect of crack spreads on market players (Part 3).

Everybody who is active in the oil industry knows that financial futures markets are linked to physical oil markets and that they determine to some extent the behavior of players in that market.

But what is the logic behind these links, how do they exactly influence markets and most importantly, how can one anticipate on changes in market fundamentals?

This is the mystery that we will try to unravel in this e-paper.

Part 3: The effect of crack spreads


Part 2 – The effect of forward curves

1 januari 2012 

The explanation of this vast subject has been cut into three e-papers. One will cover the linkage between spot and futures prices (Part 1), one will cover the effect of the forward curve on physical markets (Part 2) and the last e-paper will cover the effect of crack spreads on market players (Part 3).

Everybody who is active in the oil industry knows that financial futures markets are linked to physical oil markets and that they determine to some extent the behavior of players in that market.

But what is the logic behind these links, how do they exactly influence markets and most importantly, how can one anticipate on changes in market fundamentals? This is the mystery that we will try to unravel in this e-paper.

Part 2 – The effect of forward curves


Part 1 – The link between Spot and Futures prices

1 januari 2012 

The explanation of this vast subject has been cut into three e-papers. One will cover the linkage between spot and futures prices (Part 1), one will cover the effect of the forward curve on physical markets (Part 2) and the last e-paper will cover the effect of crack spreads on market players (Part 3).

This e-paper focuses on links between spot and futures prices. We will start our investigation by determining what links are present and how this drives fundamentals. We will look at some examples which highlight the interplay between futures and physical markets.

Based on this analysis we will discuss what a trader should monitor in order to get a broad view of the market structure and what is needed to be successful.

Part 1 – The link between Spot and Futures prices


Oil Trading and Industry Practices

1 januari 2012 

Traders base their business decisions on intuition or on sound analysis. The last and to our opinion best option requires that he is constantly up to date with the latest market developments.

Nowadays a multitude of information is available and can be accessed either free of charge or by paying subscription fees. However, the key to success is to look at the right information, to interpret it correctly and to translate it to your own business situation. This has proven to be a hard task and good results depend heavily on how this task is tackled.

PJK will try to explain which approaches are used in practice and why these are used.

In any case three important markets need to be analysed:
a) the international market
b) the local market
c) the futures market

Oil Trading and Industry Practices


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